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To assess the likelihood of project success, the risk manager should use both probabilistic and quantitative risk analyses. Probabilistic analysis helps in understanding the range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, while quantitative risk analysis provides a numerical estimate of the overall risk impact on project objectives. Combining these methods gives a more comprehensive understanding of the project’s risk profile and allows the risk manager to provide an informed response regarding the likelihood of project success. PMI’s risk management standards support the use of these tools for a thorough and accurate risk assessment​​.

The project manager should first gather more information about the previous project's issues by interviewing the other project manager. This will help in understanding the root causes of the delay and how to prevent similar issues in the current project before taking further action.

 The project manager should first include the risk of delay in delivery of the GTG in the risk register and communicate with the stakeholders about the potential impact and response strategies. This is part of the risk identification process, which is the first step in risk management. The risk register is a document that records the identified risks, their causes, effects, probabilities, impacts, and response plans. The project manager should communicate with the stakeholders to ensure that they are aware of the risk and its implications, and to obtain their feedback and support. The project manager should also update the risk register as new information becomes available or as the risk status changes. The other options are not the first actions that the project manager should take. Communicating with the client to provide the previous shutdown plan is part of the risk response process, which comes after the risk identification and analysis processes. Reviewing and updating the project schedule is part of the schedule management process, which is not directly related to risk management. Interviewing the other project manager to learn more details is a technique that can be used to identify risks, but it is not the first action that the project manager should take. The project manager should first document the risk in the risk register and communicate with the stakeholders before seeking more information from other sources. References: 3, 4, 5

Risk identification should be an ongoing process throughout the project lifecycle. Encouraging project team members to proactively identify risks allows for continuous risk management and the development of appropriate response strategies as new risks emerge.

According to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® Examination Content Outline1, one of the tasks in the domain of Risk Identification is to ensure that project team members proactively identify risks throughout the project life cycle, using various tools and techniques, to enable planning for possible risk response strategies1. Risk identification is an iterative process that should be performed regularly and frequently throughout the project, as new risks may emerge or existing risks may change due to internal or external factors2. The project manager should involve the project team members and other relevant stakeholders in the risk identification process, as they may have different perspectives, expertise, and insights on the project risks3. The project manager should not identify risks only at the project’s midpoint for the stakeholders to review them, because that would be too late and ineffective to manage the risks that may have already occurred or escalated4. The project manager should not identify risks at the beginning of the project because the risk posture will not change, because that would be unrealistic and imprudent to assume that the project environment and conditions will remain static and predictable5. The project manager should not delegate risk identification to each team member and have them record the risks on separate risk registers for their areas, because that would create inconsistency, duplication, and fragmentation of the risk information, and prevent a holistic and integrated view of the project risks. References: 1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® Examination Content Outline, page 82: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, page 3983: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, page 3994: Risk Identification: When and How Often to Do It During the Project Life Cycle5: Risk Management: Why Is It Important?. : Risk Register in Project Management - Project Management Academy.

After analyzing the information collected from individual project team members, the risk manager's primary output is an updated risk register. The risk register is a key document in risk management, containing all identified risks, their analysis, and the planned responses. As new information is gathered and analyzed, the risk register is updated to reflect the current status of each risk, any changes in their probability or impact, and any adjustments to the risk response plans.

PMI emphasizes that the risk register should be continually updated throughout the project to ensure that all risks are properly managed and documented​​.