8008 Exam Dumps : PRM Certification - Exam III: Risk Management Frameworks, Operational Risk, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Market Risk, ALM, FTP - 2015 Edition

When a derivative transaction is entered into, its value generally is close to zero. Over time, as the value of the underlying changes, the transaction acquires a positive or negative value. It is not possible to predict the future value of the transaction in advance, however distributional assumptions can be made and potential exposure can be measured in multiple ways. Of all the possible future exposures, it is generally positive exposures that are relevant to credit risk because that is the only situation where the bank may lose money from a default of the counterparty.

The maximum (generally a quantile eg, the 97.5th quantile) exposure possible over the time of the transaction is the 'Potential Future Exposure', or PFE.

The average of the distribution of positive exposures at a specified date before the longest trade in the portfolio is called 'Expected Exposure', or EE.

The expected positive exposure calculated as the weighted average of the future positive Expected Exposure across a time horize is called the EPE, or the 'Expected Positive Exposure'.

The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date - is the 'fair value', as defined under FAS 157.

Therefore the corect answer is that EPE is the weighted average of the future positive expected exposure across a time horizon.

Delta is non-linear with respect to prices for a number of securities such as bonds, options and other derivatives. It changes with changes in prices, and any hedge initially undertaken becomes quickly mismatched. Therefore delta hedges need to be managed quite actively and kept up-to-date. Therefore I is true.Primary risks comprise most of the risk in a position, and therefore portfolio managers are right to focus on them over secondary risks. Therefore II is true.The greater the hedge rebalance frequency, the lower is the hedge mismatch at any point in time, and therefore residual risks would be lower. However, rebalancing hedges requires rebalance trades to be done, and these involve transaction costs. Generally, a reasonable balance needs to be struck between the frequency of rebalances (a lower frequency increases residual risk, but this residual risk is not directionally biased) and the costs of rebalancing. III is correct.Vega risk is the risk arising due to changes in prices due to changes in volatility.  Options carry vega risk. Therefore any hedges against vega risks can only be obtained using other options positions.  (Vega risk may also be hedged using other volatility based products, eg an OTC volatility swap, or a VIX futures type product.)

For a dataset with 250 observations, the top 2% of the losses will be the top 5 observations. Expected shortfall is the average of the losses beyond the VaR threshold. Therefore the correct answer is (20 + 19 + 19 + 17 + 16)/5 = 18.2m .

Note that Expected Shortfall is also called conditional VaR (cVaR), Expected Tail Loss and Tail average.