Amazon Web Services MLS-C01 Exam With Confidence Using Practice Dumps

The MAPE of the predictor could be improved by making the following changes to the CreatePredictor API call:

Set PerformAutoML to true. This will allow Amazon Forecast to automatically evaluate different algorithms and choose the one that minimizes the objective function, which is the mean of the weighted losses over the forecast types. By default, these are the p10, p50, and p90 quantile losses1. This option can help find a better algorithm than DeepAR+ for the given data.

Set PerformHPO to true. This will enable hyperparameter optimization (HPO), which is the process of finding the optimal values for the algorithm-specific parameters that affect the quality of the forecasts. HPO can improve the accuracy of the predictor by tuning the hyperparameters based on the training data2.

The other options are not likely to improve the MAPE of the predictor. Setting ForecastHorizon to 4 will reduce the number of time steps that the model predicts, which may not match the business requirement of predicting next month’s inventory. Setting ForecastFrequency to W for weekly will change the granularity of the forecasts, which may not be appropriate for the monthly data. Setting FeaturizationMethodName to filling will not have any effect, since there is no missing data in the dataset.

CreatePredictor - Amazon Forecast

HPOConfig - Amazon Forecast

The factors that will adversely impact the performance of the forecast model are:

Sales data is aggregated by week. This will reduce the granularity and resolution of the data, and make it harder to capture the daily patterns and variations in sales volume. The data scientist should request daily sales data from the source database to enable building a daily model, which will be more accurate and useful for the prediction task.

Sales data is missing zero entries for item sales. This will introduce bias and incompleteness in the data, and make it difficult to account for the items that have no demand or are out of stock. The data scientist should request that item sales data from the source database include zero entries to enable building the model, which will be more robust and realistic.

The other options are not valid because:

Detecting seasonality for the majority of stores will not be an issue, as sales data is highly consistent from week to week. Requesting categorical data to relate new stores with similar stores that have more historical data may not improve the model performance significantly, and may introduce unnecessary complexity and noise.

The sales data does not need to have more variance, as it reflects the actual demand and behavior of the customers. Requesting external sales data from other industries will not improve the model’s ability to generalize, but may introduce irrelevant and misleading information.

Only 100 MB of sales data is not a problem, as it is sufficient to train a forecast model with Amazon S3 and Amazon Forecast. Requesting 10 years of sales data will not provide much benefit, as it may contain outdated and obsolete information that does not reflect the current market trends and customer preferences.

Amazon Forecast

Forecasting: Principles and Practice

The machine learning model in this scenario shows signs of overfitting, as evidenced by better performance on the training dataset than on the testing dataset. Overfitting indicates that the model is capturing noise or details specific to the training data rather than general patterns.

One common approach to reduce overfitting is L2 regularization, which adds a penalty to the loss function for large weights and helps the model generalize better by smoothing out the weight distribution. By increasing the value of the L2 hyperparameter, the ML specialist can increase this penalty, helping to mitigate overfitting and improve performance on the testing dataset.

Options like increasing momentum or reducing dropout are less effective for addressing overfitting in this context.