8010 Exam Dumps : Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam

If the marginal probability of default of two securities A and B is P(A) and P(B), then the probability of both of them defaulting together is affected by the default correlation between them. Marginal probability of default means the probability of default of each security on a standalone basis, ie, the probability of default of one security without considering the other security.

The relationship that expresses the probability of joint default of the two is given by the following expression:

It is easy to see that in a situation where the Default Correlation of A & B = 0, ie, the defaults are independent, the combined probability of default is P(A)*P(B), exactly what we would intuitively expect. Also in the other extreme case where the default correlation is equal to 1 and P(A) = P(B) = p, ie the securities behave in an identical way, the expression resolves to just p, which is what we would expect.

From the above relationship, it is clear that the probability of joint default of A and B is the greatest when default correlation between the two is equal to 1, ie the securities behave in an identical way. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

All of the distributions referred to in the question can be used to model the loss severity distribution for op risk.Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

The bank paid $7m for the bonds,and expected recovery is $3m (30% x $10m face). Therefore Bank B's loss is $4m ($7m - $3m). Choice 'b' is the correct answer. All other answers are incorrect.